This space allows me the chance to make a few predictions.

With 2005 coming to a close, it only seems fair to make an accounting of whether these "prophecies" came to pass.

Doubt still remains about one proclamation I made at the start of 2005: That New York would see the death of the "moderate Republican." Last January I wrote that with the departure of Rep. Amo Houghton, we will no longer see this type of Republican representative in these parts.

But the Republican Party hasn’t made that decision yet… although it’s coming soon. In the next few weeks, New York GOP Chairman Steve Minarik (also the Monroe County chief) plans to have the county chairman vote on who they would support for governor in 2006.

If Minarik gets his way, they will back the very definition of "moderate" in the Republican ranks – former Massachusetts governor William Weld. But there is dissention in the ranks, which has emboldened more conservative voices in the party to run – former Assembly Minority Leader John Faso and former Secretary of State Randy Daniels chief among them. Faso and Daniels will have to sell themselves as true conservatives.

My bet (perhaps I shouldn’t be making a prediction in a column devoted to deconstructing previous predictions.. but what the hell) is that Weld will get the nod.

And then Tom Golisano will be waiting for a primary challenge. And tell me the New Yorker that would call him a rock-ribbed conservative.

I also predicted at the start of 05 (probably under the influence of a champagne hangover) that the mayoral candidates would trip over themselves to sell the city voters that they could work well with County Executive Maggie Brooks. I proclaimed this as though it would be a campaign centerpiece.

In reality, a Brooks accord was far from the core of the campaign. The violence in the city, the relationship with the City School District and the competence of the candidates took the rightful places as top issues during that campaign.

But on another city issue I was dead-on. I wrote that taxpayers should prepare to be on the hook for the remainder of the life of the Rochester Fast Ferry.

There should have been no surprise when Mayor Bill Johnson said a few weeks back that it was a mistake to say the city-operated ferry would not need a government subsidy.

Of course it would. And of course it will continue to need an infusion of city cash for the foreseeable future. The question now will be whether the city should seek other government funders (the county, the region, the state)… and, more importantly, whether those entities would even broach the idea of helping to keep the ferry afloat.

And while I apparently have no trouble taking bows for the Ferry prediction, I ought to hide my head on the next one. I wrote (rather sniffily) on January 2, 2005 that the Democratic Party will be scrambling just to keep the 12 seats they already have on the Monroe County Legislature.

It seemed logical at the time. County Legislator Chris Wilmot had just flipped parties moving from Democrat to Republican (giving the GOP a 17 to 12 advantage before 2006 even began). Fred Amato, a Greece conservative Democrat, was being forced out and the party would have a problem in his district. In Irondequoit, Democratic incumbent Stephanie Aldersley barely survived her last challenge. And Ted O’Brien, who had been appointed to the other legislative seat, had never won a political race. Both could be had.

And the Democrats had far more incumbents being forced out by term limits than the GOP. Frankly, I thought the Republicans would get 20 seats on the 29 member county legislature and gain a veto-proof majority.

Well Amato did lose (his wife, that is)… but Democrats made gains by taking back Wilmot’s seat. Aldersley and O’Brien became part of the Irondequoit surge, both winning their races rather handily. The Democrats held serve.

Ah… you win some, you lose some, right?

Finally came this prediction at the dawn of the current year: That we would see New York State Legislators talking about reform, but not actually achieving substantive change.

They could have reopened the call for a constitutional convention or tried to give away the power of redrawing district lines. That didn’t happen.

But they did come up with a budget reform package that would have given more control to themselves… it would also impose a contingency budget if the lawmakers and the governor couldn’t agree by a new deadline of May 1.

This went before the voters. And before it did, the voices of opposition rang out loudly. And it went down to defeat.

This budget reform package, however, was really no reform at all. It would have split up power in a different way… but it wouldn’t have gotten to the core of the problem. The concentration of power in the hands of a few in Albany would not have changed. Nor would it alter the entrenched incumbent class in the legislature.

Creating a ray of hope that Albany would be responsive – that’s where reform begins. Of course that wasn’t on the ballot in 2005.

I suppose I got that one right. I wish I hadn’t.

Have you heard they took the Yellowstone grizzly bear off the list of endangered species?

That’s good for the bear, you’d figure.

In Monroe County, however, it’s high time that a political animal go on the endangered list.

The Democrat endorsed by the Conservative Party.

In the 2005 election, the Monroe County Conservative Party boasted endorsements for 114 candidates. They may have well lifted the Republican Party slate and adopted it for their own. In only three instances did they back a Democrat. In Webster, DemCons William Saucke (Webster Supervisor) and Alexander Sienkiewicz (Webster Town Council) lost. In Irondequoit, Joe Genier, a DemCon town justice incumbent, won.

Other than that… the Conservatives backed Republicans (or in a few instances candidates who ran solely on the Conservative Party line and lost).

The last comparable local election year was 2001 when there were similar county races, town races and at least a number of county legislative slots open. In that year, the Tom Cook-led Conservatives endorsed Democrats such as Vinnie Faggiano for Sheriff (who lost), Fred Amato for County Legislature (who barely beat the Republican to keep his seat). They backed Democrat John Howland in Henrietta against Republican incumbent Jim Breese… and also supported two Henrietta Democrats (Tom Dietz and Ray Ottman) for town board against Republicans Janet Zinck and Michael Yudelson.

This year? An Amato ran for county legislator, but it was Fred’s wife Pat because he couldn’t seek reelection due to term limits. The Conservative Party backed Republican Ray DiRaddo against Pat Amato. She lost. In Henrietta, Breese, Zinck and Yudelson all got the Conservative support. Hell, they gave their Conservative label to people like Ralph Esposito in Gates, the Republican incumbent supervisor who proposed a budget that hikes taxes 14 percent.

Time was when Conservative and Democrat could live with the same Rochester area candidate. Go back to the 1980s when Reagan reigned supreme: Roger Robach, Joe Robach, Ralph Quattrociocchi, Bob Stevenson, David Proud, Gary Proud, Bill Gillette, Phil Fedele, Jack Kelly, John Auberger, Amato, – these were all Democrats who won with Conservative backing. Many of them came from the west side of the region.

When Tom Cook wrested control of the Conservative Party from Leo Kesserling way back around the start of the Reagan era, he opened the door to the Dems – and even reached out to the party chairman, the liberal Larry Kirwin. I recall a few years ago Nathan Robfogel, a former Democratic County Chairman in the 1980s, saying that it didn’t make sense to run liberal Democrats west of the Genesee.

Now? No DemCons.

So what’s this mean? Well, it makes it harder to understand the comment that Democratic County Legislator-elect Paul Haney gave to Krestia DeGeorge in City Newspaper – that the next town Democrats could claim is Gates – a west side, traditionally conservative town. Maybe the demographics are changing.

It’s also harder to believe a statement (made, albeit, in an offhand way) from County Democratic Chairman Joe Morelle, who said that Joe Robach, now a Republican state senator, is the kind of politician who should be coming back to the Democratic Party.

Doesn’t this lack of Conservative labeling hurt the Democrats? Well, the party seems rather blasé about it. They can now get another line from places like the Working Families Party and the Independence Party. Maybe they think the Independence line allows them the ability to show they are moderate… and go after the so-called Reagan Democrats.

But that could be in jeopardy if the Independence Party can’t muster the 50,000 votes it needs in the next gubernatorial election (a real possibility with its benefactor, Tom Golisano, now a registered Republican).

And what does it mean for the Conservative Party. Under Tom Cook, that party created the illusion of being real powerbrokers. In part, that was because they could endorse either of the two major party candidates in a key election.

But now, it appears that Cook and the conservatives find themselves in the more traditional role of this party in New York State – being a check and a balance on the Republican Party. (Just look at the statewide GOP. Now some gubernatorial candidates from their own ranks say they will run on the Conservative line if they don’t get the Republican endorsement).

Or maybe Cook and the Conservatives simply don’t want to get involved with Democrats until they can show their mettle on the west side… clearly the Democrat organization there is weak.

Any way you slice, however, one thing is true – the DemCon is truly a vanishing breed.

After an election, political party leaders act like football coaches.. They look at what they did right to get votes and work to replicate those.  The moves that don’t work, they try to alter or ditch entirely.

Election 2005 had a few reasons for the party leaders to go back to the playbook. And there were other results… more mixed… that might force those party leaders to figure out what it all meant. 

TAXES/SPENDING – Let’s start with the area that sent the fuzziest of mixed messages.

Just look at two town supervisor races to get an understanding of the confusion fiscal issues seemingly created.

In Gates, Democratic challenger Sue Swanton worked to make Republican incumbent Ralph Esposito look like he had no handle on fiscal matters. The Esposito budget added fuel to that fire. Just weeks before Gates residents went to the polls, he authored a spending plan that would increase the property tax rate by nearly 14 percent.

Republicans here see property tax hikes as the third rail. Steve Minarik, the Republican chair, makes stable property taxes the  party’s biggest selling point. So the Esposito budget flies in the face of the standard.

And even with Swanton pointing to Esposito’s fiscal irresponsibility, he still managed to win. It’s astounding if you think about it.

Meanwhile in Irondequoit, Democratic challenger Mary Ellen Heyman claimed Republican incumbent David Schantz was asleep at the fiscal wheel. Spending was out of sight, she said… town debt rose. She claimed she can do better.

She’ll get that shot. Heyman pulled off one of the few upsets in this election by unseating Schantz. And the Schantz budget was nearly as onerous as Esposito’s.

So what does this tell party strategists? It seems to say that trying to keep property taxes flat might not be the slam-dunk sales pitch it used to be.

CRIME – Bob Duffy was a police chief in the city. His opponents (Wade Norwood, John Parrinello, and Tim Mains) tried in different ways to say that he wasn’t effective.

The election results seem to say that Duffy’s opponents weren’t effective. But perhaps that would be a false read on the part of the Democratic Party and Duffy.

John Parrinello did hit a vein when he talked about aggressively attacking drug dealing on the streets, cracking down on gangs, making parents more accountable.  The tough talk did get notice by city voters. The messenger, however, made it harder for people ultimately to vote for him.

In the next few years, Duffy will have to convince the people of Rochester that he’s done something to make the city safer. He’s going to have to prove to those who aren’t coming downtown, that it’s okay to set foot on those sidewalks. His will be a problem to deal with both on the streets… and in the minds of people in Monroe County.

Because if he doesn’t, the Republican Party will have a blueprint to go after him. And this time they might find a messenger who isn’t as abrasive as Parrinello.

UNITY – Republicans in Monroe County are not going the way of the national GOP. They still seem united; they still talk about the team. The GOP lost nothing they didn’t already lack in the city. And, with one grand exception, Republicans held their serve in the county and the towns.

But challenges lie ahead. That one exception, Irondequoit, should nag at GOP strategists to figure out what went wrong.

The County Legislature is still in the hands of the GOP, but they have a lot of new faces in the mix. Perhaps they will still have a common interest with County Executive Maggie Brooks’ administration… and they will let her take the lead. But maybe, if the budget situation remains bumpy, they will start breaking away.

Democrats, meanwhile, should be buoyed by the election. They got a town (Irondequoit) and seem to be finally building Democratic foot soldiers in places outside of Rochester.

It’s progress. But Democrats still have to craft a message that will work in places outside the city.  And the mayor’s race picked at the scab of dissention among Democratic leaders. Should internal division linger over the next few years, and should the Duffy administration stagger out of the gate, well, that would make things far more difficult for the party in the coming years.

So now the political strategists huddle up for 2006. Let’s see what they break out come the new year.

Good ol’ Mr. Smith is sure taking it on the chin these days.

You remember the citizen legislator from the black and white celluloid days. Jimmy Stewart played him – a kind of aw-shucks type who gained a seat in Congress. A man of the people, representing his constituents, bringing the legislative process to its knees until it responded to the will of the folks.

I wrote earlier about the proposal to shrink the Monroe County Legislature from 29 members to as few as 15.Republicans in control of that body, through the voice of President Wayne Zyra, said that it would diminish the local control of county government. He imagines 29 Mr. Smiths connecting with their local people, acting on their behalf.

And yet this idea of legislative might in government has gotten some bad press in recent days.

You may have read, heard and watched the parade of people who are coming out against a ballot measure in New York that would give more budget making authority to the state legislature.

Just listen to one of those in opposition – former Governor Mario Cuomo’s budget director: R. Wayne Diesel: "It’s better to have fiscal responsibility in the hands of one. Today, in the executive budget process, there is a focal point of accountability and that’s in the executive… To attempt to transfer accountability to 212 focal points simply can’t work. It dilutes accountability. It dilutes responsibility."

I’m sure that will swell with pride the chests of the 212 state Assembly and Senate members.

Heck the state Conservative Party released a statement that made legislators out to be much less like Mr. Smith do-gooders and much more like back-room wheelers and dealers.

On the county level, there have been complaints that the county executive’s office does far more policy setting for county government than do the lawmakers.

Carrie Andrews, a Democrat running for a legislative seat, said that there seems to be a kind of role reversal between the executive and the legislature. "According to the Monroe County Charter, the county legislature is supposed to be the appropriating, policy-determining body in Monroe County. What we have is actually the county executive who tends to set the policy course."

But another legislative candidate, Republican Alex Zapesochny, said perhaps people need to look at this in a slightly different way.

"If your belief is that we need strong leadership to adjust to the new kind of economy that we have right now, then maybe having a strong executive isn’t a bad thing," he said.

Maybe so. And maybe a budget drafted by an administration, rather than a deliberative body, is better.

But with everyone and their brother ripping down legislative bodies these days, it’s quite hard to hear comments by elected officials who say that local government is most responsive to the people.

No one seems to believe that nowadays.

It was such a simple idea.

Instead it made me feel in turns like the dweeb getting rejected for the prom and the ogre turning away people at the gate.

All we (meaning the Voice of the Voter effort) wanted to do was hold debates with candidates for the Monroe County Legislature. After all, there have been plenty of complaints that the Rochester press has paid much less attention to these kinds of races (City Council, County Legislature, Town Board) than for the Rochester mayor’s race.

So the thought was to pick a couple of districts – and the candidates would be thrilled to come.

Then the no’s came rolling in.
Dave Malta, the Republican incumbent in the 8th District, said he wanted to focus on going door-to-door. His opponent, Democrat Chris Gorman, seemed interested, but he would have had to shuffle his schedule around.

Travis Heider, the Democrat in the 14th District, said through a campaign manager that work would prevent him from coming (the taping for the program is Thursday morning at 10:30 a.m). Work also seemed to be the impediment for Phil Zuber, the Republican running in the 21st District.

Bill Smith, the Republican Majority Leader in the 10th District, said he was booked up.
Lydia Dzus, the Republican challenging in the 16th District, never responded to the four phone calls left on her voicemail. Republican Committee Executive Director Mike Barry ultimately let me down easy by saying that she was unlikely to make it.

Then I had to turn around and release those who planned on coming from showing up. Gorman didn’t have to figure out whether he needed to reschedule. Ted Nixon, the Democrat trying to beat Smith, voiced disappointment.

In the end, we opted to have a forum on the role of the county legislature with incumbent Democrat Stephanie Aldersley (Dzus’ opponent) and challengers Alex Zapesochny, a Republican, and Carrie Andrews, a Democrat, in the mix. (Heider and Zuber are their opponent respectively). We also included long-time Republcan legislator Michael Hanna, who will not be running because of term limits. The idea is to talk not just about the legislature’s role, but also about what the future challenges would be… and whether the new term limits for lawmakers are really working.

There is the desire to ascribe motives for why the naysayers wanted to stay away. Many thought that a week’s notice was too little. Maybe it was.

Barry told me that Republican political leaders stress to their candidates that door-to-door campaigning and mailers are key in these races. So maybe that’s a legitmate excuse.

It could have been more politically strategic. If a candidate thinks he or she has the race wrapped up, why chance a gaffe in debate. Or maybe those in closer races didn’t want a televised blunder to submarine their chances. Of course, no one would say that was the motive.

In my rejected heart I kept thinking… "but it’s less than a week before election… wouldn’t this be a great opportunity to put your views (and that of your politcal party caucus) before the voters?" But perhaps that’s just the lament of the spurned.

Don’t those pimply-faced teenage boys rationalize when they’re hosed by a prospective date?

It’s tough to have to relive those awkward high school years.