Originally published in Rochester Business Journal
1/9/2009, 1/16/2009, 1/23/2009
Part One
Early signals from our health insurer led us to expect another double-digit increase in our insurance premiums—perhaps a 15% hit. Frankly, I thought that we were just being softened up for something lower—If I were led to expect 15%, then a mere 11% bump should make me (relatively) happy. I was stunned when the final price of the most popular of our plans would go up 21% in 2009.
The big increase in price led us to explore cheaper plans, particularly a policy that includes a “Health Savings Account” (HSA). The discussion below refers to the specific plans we were offered by Excellus BlueCross BlueShield.
CAUTION: The remainder of this column discusses insurance premiums, deductibles, out-of-pocket maxima and other arcane health insurance jargon. Readers looking for lighter fare might prefer IRS Publication 17 or, perhaps, a William Faulkner novel.
This week’s conference on the state’s budget crisis—sponsored by the Empire Center on State Policy and the Center for Governmental Research Inc.—was organized around a technical question: What can be cut from New York’s budget to fix a deficit estimated (today, at least) at $12.5 billion? Yet the overriding problem is not technical but political. My colleague Erika Rosenberg, moderator of one of the sessions, asked the panelists this question: “What’s it going to take for the Legislature to make the unpopular decisions that are needed to balance the budget?”
Gov. David Paterson made the correct technical decision in calling the Legislature back for a special session on Nov. 18. Yet the brutal reality of New York politics eliminated any possibility of progress. With control of the state Senate still in question and the political risks starkly clear, the session never convened.
Back in 2002, CGR reported on the many buildings around the state bearing the names of elected officials. To illustrate our point, we included a picture of the Joseph L. Bruno Stadium at Hudson Valley Community College, built with $14 million contributed by the generosity of then Senate Majority Leader Bruno. Of course, he was being generous with OUR money.
Bruno Stadium
In hindsight, it was risky to use the Bruno example. A political friend told me what he’d have done to me had he been on Bruno’s staff. Standards of decency and editorial policy prevent me from saying more.
A lot of money flows to community projects through the goodwill of legislators. The NYS Legislature has long divvied up $200 million in “member item” cash—money from the annual budget that can be allocated by a member of the legislature with no more process than the permission of his or her political leader. In 2006, my colleague Erika Rosenberg reported that the problem extended to several billion dollars in additional money that was borrowed to fund projects sponsored by individual members. We called these funds “Capital Pork.”
In an essay in last week’s City newspaper, former Rochester Mayor Bill Johnson mentioned “Depression era conditions.” It wasn’t clear what he meant—fortunately, however, we’re a long way from reaching such depths of despair. After all, GDP actually rose at a 2.8% rate through the second quarter of 2008. Unlike the 25% unemployment of the Great Depression, we’re just over 6% now. I’ll be astounded if the unemployment rate doesn’t continue to rise and GDP begin to fall—but this isn’t the Great Depression.
A friend asked yesterday if we should mount a “public works” program and attempt to “jumpstart” the economy through direct spending or, perhaps, by encouraging the public to spend more by sending out another wave of government rebate checks.
The following is based on a book review I delivered on behalf of the Rochester Public Library’s “Books Sandwiched In” series.
Dan Ariely’s Predictably Irrational comes from a field called “behavioral economics,” a branch of cognitive psychology focused on economic decision-making. Folks in the field attempt to figure out why apparently rational people behave irrationally so much of the time.
That markets are influenced by irrational behavior is easily demonstrated. Let’s consider recent trends in oil prices. When oil was trading at over $140 per barrel, relatively few oil industry experts would defend the price on the basis of pure supply and demand. Sure, some would cite rising demand in China or the number of cars added to the road every day in Mumbai. Many authoritative voices had been saying for months that they while they could rationally explain a spot price around $100 per barrel, the arithmetic simply didn’t justify $140 per barrel. So why were apparently smart people betting big dollars on a higher price? How did the price get to $147 per barrel? Largely because they believed that other people believed that prices were going to rise. And they believed that they were smart enough to buy when prices were rising and to sell before the bubble burst.
“We’re all keeping up with the Syossets. One school installs FieldTurf; now we’re all installing FieldTurf.” This comment, from a participant in a Long Island forum on school property taxes, holds more truth than we care to admit. The athletic facility improvements are the most obvious—but the same principle applies to class size, science labs, technology, even our approach to special education. Confronting a lawsuit on the funding of education in NYC, various groups tied themselves up in knots attempting to develop guidelines on “necessary” school spending. Studies aside, parents apply a relative standard—my kids deserve the same as the kids in the next district.
The proposition that we should “Buy Local” is appealing. We may continue to buy apples from Chile and lettuce from California, but we have the common decency to feel guilty about it.
But do we need to?
American producers of beet and cane sugar have long supported a Buy Local policy. Dominated by a relatively small number of large and politically savvy producers and processors, these “buy from us” sugar interests keep prices high through official U.S. policy that includes a robust quota and tariff regime. Protectionist trade policies for American sugar acquire additional political weight from the powerful Midwest corn lobby, as cheap sugar from Brazil, Thailand and other countries also competes with corn sweeteners. Corn sweeteners—only 13 percent of total sweetener deliveries in 1970—surpassed beet and cane sugar in 1986 and now contribute 20 percent more to the sweetener market than refined sugars.
When it comes to economic forecasts, I tend to be a “glass-half-full” kind of guy. Yes, there is some probability that gas will rise to $20 per gallon and we’ll start riding horses again. I think it more likely that gas prices will fall back to $3 per gallon and there will again (sadly) be a market for the Hummer.
My natural optimism was dealt a blow by a new assessment of fast-growing firms from the Small Business Adminstration (SBA). The study is an adaptation of the work of David Birch of Cognetics from the 1980s and 1990s. Firms with rapid revenue growth were dubbed “gazelles” by Birch. He found that these firms were responsible for most of the nation’s employment growth.
CGR recently recruited a staff member from out of town. After he and his wife had found a house they liked (comparable to the home they were selling), they were confronted with what is a familiar problem—the property tax bill. The house they were about to buy was going to cost them nearly 50% more in property taxes each year. Familiar story, right? Darn those folks in North Carolina and Florida and Utah for their low property taxes! How can we compete?
But my colleague was moving from Orchard Park, a Buffalo suburb, not from Raleigh or Tampa or Salt Lake City! That’s right—Erie County property taxes are lower than Monroe County’s.
It is a good time to be a farmer. Farm product prices rose 18% from 2006 to 2007. From the first quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2008, farm product prices went up 15% with crop prices jumping 20%.
Joseph Glauber, Chief Economist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, testified before Congress last week on rising food prices. He recited a litany of factors influencing world food prices, including a string of poor wheat harvests in Australia, Canada and parts of the U.S., and growing demand for high quality food from rapidly-developing economies like China and India.
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Part One